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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Natalia Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1550

Alexa GrassovsNatalia SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · Saturday, May 10, 2025Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Natalia Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexa Grasso: Pressure fightervsNatalia Silva: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Natalia Silva wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Natalia Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Natalia Silva at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Natalia Silva enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Natalia Silva has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Natalia Silva (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexa Grasso

Red Corner

Natalia Silva

Blue Corner

+194

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1512

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexa Grasso

oldest →

SUBvs Joanne Wood · Mar 22

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24

KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26

latest

Natalia SilvaW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Victoria Leonardo · May 23

vs Andrea Lee · Aug 23

vs Viviane Araujo · Feb 24

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 24

vs Rose Namajunas · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexa GrassoMetricNatalia Silva

4.11

Strikes / min

4.81

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

58%

Strike defense

66%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

0.43

54%

Takedown defense

90%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap+2.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexa GrassoNatalia Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexa Grasso(10 fights)Natalia Silva(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.5|Blue +37.5

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexa GrassoTargetNatalia Silva

By target zone

28% acc · 62%

Head

31% acc · 65%

33% acc · 11%

Body

82% acc · 14%

52% acc · 27%

Leg

88% acc · 22%

By position

32% acc · 96%

Distance

40% acc · 98%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexa Grasso rounds

even

Natalia Silva rounds

Round 1Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:13

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:27

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 139

Sig Strikes

65 / 164

31.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

54 / 149

Total Strikes

74 / 173

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Natalia Silva	16 / 48	24 / 56	0 / 0
1	Alexa Grasso	11 / 36	12 / 37	0 / 1
2	Natalia Silva	21 / 56	21 / 56	0 / 0
2	Alexa Grasso	19 / 51	19 / 51	0 / 0
3	Natalia Silva	28 / 60	29 / 61	0 / 0
3	Alexa Grasso	15 / 52	23 / 61	0 / 1

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Natalia Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8