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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexa Grasso won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1512

Elo1514

Alexa GrassovsMaycee BarberUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Alexa Grasso won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:42

Style matchupAlexa Grasso: Pressure fightervsMaycee Barber: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Alexa Grasso wins(56.7%)

Actual result: Alexa Grasso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexa Grasso at +124 American odds

+$124 profit

$224 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maycee Barber enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Maycee Barber (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexa Grasso

Red Corner

Maycee Barber

Blue Corner

+124

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-158

(61%)

1512

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'5"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexa GrassoL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Joanne Wood · Mar 22

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24

vs Natalia Silva · May 25

latest

Maycee BarberW5 streak

oldest →

vs Jessica Eye · Jul 22

vs Andrea Lee · Mar 23

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jun 23

vs Katlyn Cerminara · Mar 24

vs Karine Silva · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexa GrassoMetricMaycee Barber

4.11

Strikes / min

4.56

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.78

58%

Strike defense

55%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

1.56

54%

Takedown defense

51%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap+1.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexa GrassoMaycee Barber

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexa Grasso(10 fights)Maycee Barber(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Recent Form

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexa GrassoTargetMaycee Barber

By target zone

26% acc · 67%

Head

17% acc · 80%

Body

57% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

30% acc · 92%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexa Grasso rounds

even

Maycee Barber rounds

Round 1Alexa Grasso edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 38

Sig Strikes

5 / 25

31%

Sig Str %

20%

12 / 38

Total Strikes

5 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Maycee Barber	5 / 25	5 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Alexa Grasso	12 / 38	12 / 38	0 / 0	1

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Maycee Barber

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13