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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Alexa Grasso won · Decision R3
Elo1512
Alexa Grasso
Elo1358
Heather Jo Clark

Alexa GrassovsHeather Jo ClarkUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · Saturday, November 5, 2016Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Alexa Grasso won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Heather Jo Clark wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Alexa Grasso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Heather Jo Clark at +460 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Alexa Grasso
Red Corner
VS
Heather Jo Clark
Blue Corner
-620
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+460
(18%)
1512
Elo
1358
32
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexa Grasso
oldest →
W
vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22
W
SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24
L
vs Natalia Silva · May 25
W
KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26
latest
Heather Jo Clark
oldest →
W
DECvs Bec Rawlings · Dec 14
L
DECvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · May 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexa GrassoMetricHeather Jo Clark
4.11
Strikes / min
—
3.71
Strikes absorbed / min
—
58%
Strike defense
—
0.40
TDs / 15 min
—
54%
Takedown defense
—
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes— vs 63.0Takedowns— vs 0.5Sub Atts— vs 0.50Form0.0 vs -0.6
Alexa GrassoHeather Jo Clark

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Alexa Grasso(10 fights)Heather Jo Clark(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +154.1|Blue -154.1
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +48.1|Blue -48.1
Grappler Score
Red +49.8|Blue -49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14

Heather Jo Clark

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights1