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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Felice Herrig won · U-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1426

Alexa GrassovsFelice HerrigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, February 4, 2017Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Felice Herrig won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexa Grasso: Pressure fightervsFelice Herrig: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alexa Grasso wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Felice Herrig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexa Grasso at -380 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alexa Grasso has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Felice Herrig has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexa Grasso

Red Corner

Felice Herrig

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1512

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexa Grasso

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24

vs Natalia Silva · May 25

KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26

latest

Felice HerrigL4 streak

oldest →

vs Cortney Casey · Dec 17

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Apr 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 18

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Aug 20

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexa GrassoMetricFelice Herrig

4.11

Strikes / min

3.84

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

5.19

58%

Strike defense

48%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

1.08

54%

Takedown defense

75%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexa GrassoFelice Herrig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexa Grasso(10 fights)Felice Herrig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +86.0|Blue -86.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexa GrassoTargetFelice Herrig

By target zone

28% acc · 54%

Head

19% acc · 60%

59% acc · 16%

Body

46% acc · 35%

77% acc · 30%

Leg

25% acc · 5%

By position

38% acc · 98%

Distance

22% acc · 87%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

83% acc · 8%

0% acc

Ground

60% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexa Grasso rounds

even

Felice Herrig rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Alexa Grasso edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:03

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Alexa Grasso edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:11

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 206

Sig Strikes

60 / 246

38%

Sig Str %

24.3%

88 / 215

Total Strikes

66 / 252

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felice Herrig	14 / 86	14 / 86	0 / 0	0
1	Alexa Grasso	16 / 45	18 / 47	0 / 0	1
2	Felice Herrig	24 / 85	28 / 89	1 / 2	0
2	Alexa Grasso	34 / 74	39 / 79	0 / 0	0
3	Felice Herrig	22 / 75	24 / 77	1 / 2	0
3	Alexa Grasso	30 / 87	31 / 89	0 / 0	0

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Felice Herrig

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights10