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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Fiziev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1509

Alex WhitevsRafael FizievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · Saturday, October 26, 2019Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Rafael Fiziev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex White: Well-roundedvsRafael Fiziev: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alex White wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Rafael Fiziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex White at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex White is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rafael Fiziev has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Alex White has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rafael Fiziev has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex White

Red Corner

Rafael Fiziev

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1492

Elo

1509

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex White

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jan 17

KOvs Mitch Clarke · Sep 17

vs James Krause · Jan 18

SUBvs Jim Miller · Sep 18

vs Dan Moret · Mar 19

latest

Rafael Fiziev

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26

KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex WhiteMetricRafael Fiziev

3.76

Strikes / min

4.71

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

4.84

60%

Strike defense

49%

0.92

TDs / 15 min

0.83

71%

Takedown defense

90%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.69evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex WhiteRafael Fiziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex White(10 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.4|Blue +17.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex WhiteTargetRafael Fiziev

By target zone

36% acc · 67%

Head

47% acc · 61%

56% acc · 27%

Body

46% acc · 18%

75% acc · 5%

Leg

74% acc · 21%

By position

34% acc · 65%

Distance

48% acc · 79%

72% acc · 33%

Clinch

64% acc · 21%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex White rounds

even

Rafael Fiziev rounds

Round 1Rafael Fiziev edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:14

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Rafael Fiziev edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:40

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:07

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 133

Sig Strikes

66 / 131

39.7%

Sig Str %

50%

66 / 146

Total Strikes

73 / 138

0 / 11

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

1:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Fiziev	26 / 48	26 / 48	0 / 0
1	Alex White	14 / 38	15 / 39	0 / 3
2	Rafael Fiziev	19 / 43	20 / 44	0 / 0
2	Alex White	14 / 37	14 / 38	0 / 3
3	Rafael Fiziev	21 / 40	27 / 46	1 / 1
3	Alex White	27 / 58	37 / 69	0 / 5

Alex White

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights13