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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alex White won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1374

Alex WhitevsDan MoretUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Alex White won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex White wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Alex White wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex White at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex White enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alex White has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex White has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex White

Red Corner

Dan Moret

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1492

Elo

1374

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex WhiteL3 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jan 17

KOvs Mitch Clarke · Sep 17

vs James Krause · Jan 18

SUBvs Jim Miller · Sep 18

vs Rafael Fiziev · Oct 19

latest

Dan MoretL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Apr 18

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex WhiteMetricDan Moret

3.76

Strikes / min

2.67

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.56

60%

Strike defense

43%

0.92

TDs / 15 min

1.25

71%

Takedown defense

45%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.69Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap-0.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex WhiteDan Moret

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex White(10 fights)Dan Moret(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +117.9|Blue -117.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex WhiteTargetDan Moret

By target zone

49% acc · 63%

Head

41% acc · 69%

94% acc · 35%

Body

67% acc · 14%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

88% acc · 17%

By position

53% acc · 55%

Distance

31% acc · 38%

71% acc · 45%

Clinch

67% acc · 48%

Ground

86% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex White rounds

even

Dan Moret rounds

Round 1Dan Moret edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:27

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:10Control

Round 2Alex White edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:25

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 3Alex White edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control1:37

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 82

Sig Strikes

42 / 88

52.3%

Sig Str %

50.3%

70 / 104

Total Strikes

50 / 96

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 9

50%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

3:29

Ctrl Time

7:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dan Moret	19 / 24	25 / 30	1 / 3	0
1	Alex White	2 / 6	9 / 14	0 / 1	1
2	Dan Moret	13 / 38	14 / 39	0 / 4	0
2	Alex White	26 / 44	26 / 44	0 / 0	2
3	Dan Moret	10 / 26	11 / 27	0 / 2	0
3	Alex White	21 / 32	35 / 46	2 / 2	0

Alex White

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Dan Moret

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3