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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Clay Collard won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1355

Alex WhitevsClay CollardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · Saturday, December 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Clay Collard won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex White: Well-roundedvsClay Collard: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Clay Collard wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Clay Collard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Collard at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Collard enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alex White has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex White (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex White

Red Corner

Clay Collard

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1492

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex White

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Clarke · Sep 17

vs James Krause · Jan 18

SUBvs Jim Miller · Sep 18

vs Dan Moret · Mar 19

vs Rafael Fiziev · Oct 19

latest

Clay CollardL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Max Holloway · Aug 14

vs Gabriel Benitez · Jun 15

DECvs Tiago Trator · Sep 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex WhiteMetricClay Collard

3.76

Strikes / min

4.22

3.07

Strikes absorbed / min

5.00

60%

Strike defense

50%

0.92

TDs / 15 min

2.81

71%

Takedown defense

71%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.69Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex WhiteClay Collard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex White(10 fights)Clay Collard(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.6|Blue -136.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +38.0|Blue -38.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex WhiteTargetClay Collard

By target zone

27% acc · 57%

Head

24% acc · 53%

57% acc · 36%

Body

38% acc · 20%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

62% acc · 27%

By position

29% acc · 62%

Distance

26% acc · 70%

53% acc · 36%

Clinch

68% acc · 22%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

45% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex White rounds

even

Clay Collard rounds

Round 1Clay Collard edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Clay Collard edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:12

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Alex White edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:08

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 164

Sig Strikes

60 / 193

34.3%

Sig Str %

29.3%

80 / 189

Total Strikes

62 / 195

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 5

50%

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:20

Ctrl Time

2:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Clay Collard	31 / 90	32 / 91	1 / 1	0
1	Alex White	27 / 69	29 / 72	0 / 0	0
2	Clay Collard	20 / 56	21 / 57	0 / 1	2
2	Alex White	14 / 43	15 / 45	0 / 2	0
3	Clay Collard	9 / 47	9 / 47	2 / 3	0
3	Alex White	17 / 52	36 / 72	1 / 1	1

Alex White

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Clay Collard

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4