← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Rivera won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1358

Alex SotovsFrancisco RiveraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · Tuesday, May 15, 2012Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Francisco Rivera won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Soto: WrestlervsFrancisco Rivera: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Francisco Rivera wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Francisco Rivera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Rivera at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Rivera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francisco Rivera is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Alex Soto has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Francisco Rivera has 68pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Soto (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Soto

Red Corner

Francisco Rivera

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1351

Elo

1358

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Soto

oldest →

KOvs Michael McDonald · Nov 11

latest

Francisco RiveraL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14

KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15

SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15

vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16

vs Erik Perez · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex SotoMetricFrancisco Rivera

2.95

Strikes / min

4.07

5.02

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

59%

Strike defense

68%

2.82

TDs / 15 min

1.01

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.07Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex SotoFrancisco Rivera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Soto(2 fights)Francisco Rivera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.1|Blue +6.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex SotoTargetFrancisco Rivera

By target zone

12% acc · 39%

Head

33% acc · 71%

59% acc · 49%

Body

65% acc · 19%

83% acc · 12%

Leg

78% acc · 10%

By position

21% acc · 85%

Distance

38% acc · 85%

50% acc · 10%

Clinch

53% acc · 13%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Soto rounds

even

Francisco Rivera rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control0:46

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Francisco Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Francisco Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:08

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 178

Sig Strikes

68 / 173

24.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

46 / 185

Total Strikes

78 / 184

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

27.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francisco Rivera	23 / 58	33 / 69	0 / 0
1	Alex Soto	17 / 43	22 / 50	2 / 6
2	Francisco Rivera	23 / 58	23 / 58	0 / 0
2	Alex Soto	14 / 64	14 / 64	0 / 2
3	Francisco Rivera	22 / 57	22 / 57	0 / 0
3	Alex Soto	10 / 71	10 / 71	1 / 2

Alex Soto

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Francisco Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10