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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Charlie Campbell won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1487
Alex Reyes
Elo1494

Alex ReyesvsCharlie CampbellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charlie Campbell won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:38

Style matchupAlex Reyes: Pressure fightervsCharlie Campbell: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Charlie Campbell wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Charlie Campbell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Charlie Campbell is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alex Reyes has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Charlie Campbell has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Reyes
Red Corner
VS
Charlie Campbell
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1487
Elo
1494
39
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex ReyesL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Mike Perry · Sep 17
L
vs Tom Nolan · Aug 24
latest
Charlie Campbell
oldest →
W
vs Trevor Peek · Apr 24
L
SUBvs Tom Nolan · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex ReyesMetricCharlie Campbell
4.46
Strikes / min
5.23
6.92
Strikes absorbed / min
4.17
48%
Strike defense
55%
1.50
TDs / 15 min
2.45
0%
Takedown defense
62%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.46Δ 3.52 — meaningful gap+1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1500Strikes4.5 vs 5.5Takedowns1.5 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Alex ReyesCharlie Campbell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Alex Reyes(3 fights)Charlie Campbell(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -6.9|Blue +6.9
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex ReyesTargetCharlie Campbell

By target zone

8
27% acc · 57%
Head
27
51% acc · 63%
2
50% acc · 14%
Body
10
77% acc · 23%
4
100% acc · 29%
Leg
6
100% acc · 14%

By position

12
38% acc · 86%
Distance
35
58% acc · 81%
2
33% acc · 14%
Clinch
7
70% acc · 16%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Alex Reyes rounds
0
even
1
Charlie Campbell rounds
Round 1Charlie Campbell edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns0
43Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
14 / 38
Sig Strikes
43 / 72
36%
Sig Str %
59%
15 / 39
Total Strikes
43 / 72
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Charlie Campbell43 / 7243 / 720 / 00
1Alex Reyes14 / 3815 / 390 / 20

Alex Reyes

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3

Charlie Campbell

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3