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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Tatsuro Taira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1498

Elo1526

Alex PerezvsTatsuro TairaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · Saturday, June 15, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tatsuro Taira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:59

Style matchupAlex Perez: WrestlervsTatsuro Taira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tatsuro Taira wins(70.6%)

Actual result: Tatsuro Taira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatsuro Taira at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Perez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Tatsuro Taira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Alex Perez has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Perez has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tatsuro Taira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Perez

Red Corner

Tatsuro Taira

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1498

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Perez

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 24

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26

vs Sumudaerji · May 26

latest

Tatsuro Taira

oldest →

KOvs Carlos Hernandez · Dec 23

vs Brandon Royval · Oct 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Aug 25

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Dec 25

KOvs Joshua Van · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PerezMetricTatsuro Taira

4.41

Strikes / min

2.87

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

59%

Strike defense

44%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

3.57

75%

Takedown defense

46%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.21Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PerezTatsuro Taira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Perez(10 fights)Tatsuro Taira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.6|Blue +27.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PerezTargetTatsuro Taira

By target zone

45% acc · 54%

Head

44% acc · 81%

77% acc · 24%

Body

50% acc · 6%

60% acc · 22%

Leg

80% acc · 13%

By position

48% acc · 76%

Distance

47% acc · 90%

77% acc · 24%

Clinch

43% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Perez rounds

even

Tatsuro Taira rounds

Round 1Alex Perez edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control0:24

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:48Control

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 77

Sig Strikes

31 / 66

52.5%

Sig Str %

49.5%

45 / 81

Total Strikes

43 / 78

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 2

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tatsuro Taira	17 / 43	18 / 44	0 / 0
1	Alex Perez	23 / 43	27 / 47	1 / 1
2	Tatsuro Taira	14 / 23	25 / 34	2 / 2
2	Alex Perez	18 / 34	18 / 34	0 / 0

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights16

Tatsuro Taira

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10