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Flyweight

3 Rounds

No Contest won R2

Elo1498

Elo1522

Alex PerezvsSumudaerjiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 30, 2026Macau, China

Official fight result

No Contest

Round 2 · 1:45

Style matchupAlex Perez: WrestlervsSumudaerji: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sumudaerji enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sumudaerji has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Perez

Red Corner

Sumudaerji

Blue Corner

-142

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+119

(46%)

1498

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'8"

165.1 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Perez

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 24

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26

latest

SumudaerjiW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Dec 23

vs Charles Johnson · Oct 24

vs Mitch Raposo · Apr 25

vs Kevin Borjas · Aug 25

vs Jesus Aguilar · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PerezMetricSumudaerji

4.41

Strikes / min

4.43

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

2.35

59%

Strike defense

62%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

0.67

75%

Takedown defense

72%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.21evenly matched on net striking+2.08

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Perez(10 fights)Sumudaerji(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.2|Blue +23.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PerezTargetSumudaerji

By target zone

14% acc · 44%

Head

39% acc · 58%

27% acc · 33%

Body

56% acc · 19%

40% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

19% acc · 89%

Distance

44% acc · 77%

33% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

71% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Perez rounds

even

Sumudaerji rounds

Round 1Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:32

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 45

Sig Strikes

26 / 53

11.5%

Sig Str %

50%

22 / 58

Total Strikes

31 / 58

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:32

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sumudaerji	16 / 35	21 / 40	1 / 2	0
1	Alex Perez	9 / 39	18 / 48	0 / 1	1
2	Sumudaerji	10 / 18	10 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Alex Perez	0 / 6	4 / 10	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Alex Perez

Odds

-142

Market-implied probability

Alex Perez 56%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Alex Perez (model pick · research)$170

Sumudaerji$219

56% market-implied · model 53% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked May 29, 2026, 3:48 PM UTC · never rewritten

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights16

Sumudaerji

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8