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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Mokaev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1528

Alex PerezvsMuhammad MokaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Saturday, March 2, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Muhammad Mokaev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Perez: WrestlervsMuhammad Mokaev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev wins(80.8%)

Actual result: Muhammad Mokaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muhammad Mokaev at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Muhammad Mokaev threatens submissions; Alex Perez has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Alex Perez has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Muhammad Mokaev has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Perez

Red Corner

Muhammad Mokaev

Blue Corner

+320

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-410

(80%)

1498

Elo

1528

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Perez

oldest →

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26

vs Sumudaerji · May 26

latest

Muhammad MokaevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Charles Johnson · Jul 22

SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Oct 22

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 23

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Oct 23

vs Manel Kape · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PerezMetricMuhammad Mokaev

4.41

Strikes / min

1.61

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

1.35

59%

Strike defense

57%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

5.29

75%

Takedown defense

25%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.21evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PerezMuhammad Mokaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Perez(10 fights)Muhammad Mokaev(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.2|Blue +29.2

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +448.0|Blue -448.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PerezTargetMuhammad Mokaev

By target zone

30% acc · 73%

Head

40% acc · 72%

60% acc · 10%

Body

75% acc · 19%

56% acc · 17%

Leg

57% acc · 9%

By position

26% acc · 63%

Distance

38% acc · 66%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

90% acc · 30%

Ground

65% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Perez rounds

even

Muhammad Mokaev rounds

Round 1Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:03

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:21

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:59Control

Round 3Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:20

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 87

Sig Strikes

47 / 104

34%

Sig Str %

44%

47 / 114

Total Strikes

56 / 119

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 20

—

TD %

14.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:44

Ctrl Time

4:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Muhammad Mokaev	29 / 60	32 / 69	1 / 6
1	Alex Perez	12 / 41	12 / 41	0 / 0
2	Muhammad Mokaev	8 / 17	9 / 18	1 / 7
2	Alex Perez	13 / 29	18 / 39	0 / 0
3	Muhammad Mokaev	10 / 27	15 / 32	1 / 7
3	Alex Perez	5 / 17	17 / 34	0 / 0

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights16

Muhammad Mokaev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7