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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Alex Perez won · U-DEC R3
Elo1498
Alex Perez
Elo1385
Mark De La Rosa

Alex PerezvsMark De La RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Alex Perez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Perez wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Alex Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Perez at -365 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mark De La Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mark De La Rosa threatens submissions; Alex Perez has lost 43% of fights by sub.
  • Alex Perez has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Alex Perez has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Perez
Red Corner
VS
Mark De La Rosa
Blue Corner
-365
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+328
(23%)
1498
Elo
1385
34
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Perez
oldest →
W
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24
L
KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25
W
KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26
L
vs Sumudaerji · May 26
latest
Mark De La RosaL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Elias Garcia · Jul 18
W
vs Joby Sanchez · Nov 18
L
vs Kai Kara-France · Aug 19
L
KOvs Raulian Paiva · Feb 20
L
vs Jordan Espinosa · Jun 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PerezMetricMark De La Rosa
4.41
Strikes / min
3.13
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
5.00
59%
Strike defense
48%
2.21
TDs / 15 min
0.54
75%
Takedown defense
40%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.21Δ 3.08 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1514Strikes37.8 vs 31.0Takedowns2.0 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.75 vs 0.33Form0.3 vs 0.6
Alex PerezMark De La Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Alex Perez(10 fights)Mark De La Rosa(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +113.4|Blue -113.4
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -20.0|Blue +20.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PerezTargetMark De La Rosa

By target zone

37
50% acc · 62%
Head
19
26% acc · 73%
2
40% acc · 3%
Body
2
100% acc · 8%
21
68% acc · 35%
Leg
5
56% acc · 19%

By position

26
41% acc · 43%
Distance
15
21% acc · 58%
1
50% acc · 2%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 8%
33
75% acc · 55%
Ground
9
75% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Alex Perez rounds
0
even
0
Mark De La Rosa rounds
Round 1Alex Perez edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control3:07
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Alex Perez edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control3:47
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Alex Perez edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control1:19
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
60 / 110
Sig Strikes
26 / 84
54.7%
Sig Str %
33.3%
150 / 220
Total Strikes
74 / 140
2 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
8:13
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mark De La Rosa13 / 2840 / 580 / 00
1Alex Perez27 / 5358 / 911 / 20
2Mark De La Rosa5 / 1421 / 350 / 00
2Alex Perez20 / 2935 / 501 / 10
3Mark De La Rosa8 / 4213 / 470 / 00
3Alex Perez13 / 2857 / 790 / 10

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights16

Mark De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights7