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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alex Perez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1498

Elo1507

Alex PerezvsCharles JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Perez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:16

Style matchupAlex Perez: WrestlervsCharles Johnson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alex Perez wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Alex Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Perez at +154 American odds

+$154 profit

$254 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Perez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (52.9%).
Charles Johnson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Perez

Red Corner

Charles Johnson

Blue Corner

+154

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-184

(65%)

1498

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'9"

165.1 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex PerezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 24

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25

vs Sumudaerji · May 26

latest

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Sumudaerji · Oct 24

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PerezMetricCharles Johnson

4.41

Strikes / min

4.77

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

59%

Strike defense

55%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

0.51

75%

Takedown defense

69%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.21evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PerezCharles Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Perez(10 fights)Charles Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.3|Blue +8.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PerezTargetCharles Johnson

By target zone

45% acc · 69%

Head

29% acc · 50%

90% acc · 23%

Body

33% acc · 38%

60% acc · 8%

Leg

50% acc · 13%

By position

49% acc · 85%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

67% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Perez rounds

even

Charles Johnson rounds

Round 1Alex Perez edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns2

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 75

Sig Strikes

8 / 25

52%

Sig Str %

32%

55 / 94

Total Strikes

8 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Johnson	8 / 25	8 / 25	0 / 1	0
1	Alex Perez	39 / 75	55 / 94	0 / 0	0

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights16

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15