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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Asu Almabayev won · SUB R3

Elo1498

Elo1557

Alex PerezvsAsu AlmabayevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Asu Almabayev won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:22

Style matchupAlex Perez: WrestlervsAsu Almabayev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Asu Almabayev wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Asu Almabayev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Asu Almabayev at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Asu Almabayev threatens submissions; Alex Perez has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Alex Perez has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Perez

Red Corner

Asu Almabayev

Blue Corner

+172

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1498

Elo

1557

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Perez

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 24

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26

vs Sumudaerji · May 26

latest

Asu AlmabayevW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24

vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24

KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25

vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25

SUBvs Charles Johnson · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PerezMetricAsu Almabayev

4.41

Strikes / min

2.31

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

1.99

59%

Strike defense

53%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

4.46

75%

Takedown defense

44%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.21evenly matched on net striking+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PerezAsu Almabayev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Perez(10 fights)Asu Almabayev(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -58.2|Blue +58.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +406.0|Blue -406.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PerezTargetAsu Almabayev

By target zone

25% acc · 35%

Head

32% acc · 67%

65% acc · 38%

Body

80% acc · 22%

61% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

38% acc · 80%

Distance

38% acc · 89%

43% acc · 8%

Clinch

67% acc · 11%

83% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Perez rounds

even

Asu Almabayev rounds

Round 1Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Alex Perez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns3

Control2:18

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 98

Sig Strikes

36 / 90

62%

Sig Str %

45.3%

84 / 143

Total Strikes

68 / 126

3 / 5

TDs

2 / 5

37.5%

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:18

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Asu Almabayev	20 / 45	20 / 45	1 / 3	0
1	Alex Perez	18 / 60	40 / 82	0 / 0	0
2	Asu Almabayev	13 / 40	45 / 76	1 / 2	0
2	Alex Perez	21 / 37	43 / 60	3 / 4	0
3	Asu Almabayev	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0	1
3	Alex Perez	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights16

Asu Almabayev

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8