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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Magomed Ankalaev won · U-DEC R5

Elo1523

Elo1538

Alex PereiravsMagomed AnkalaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Pereira: Pressure fightervsMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Magomed Ankalaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Pereira at -122 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Pereira is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Magomed Ankalaev has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Magomed Ankalaev is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Alex Pereira has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Alex Pereira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Pereira

Red Corner

Magomed Ankalaev

Blue Corner

-122

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+104

(49%)

1523

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Apr 24

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Magomed Ankalaev

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 22

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24

KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PereiraMetricMagomed Ankalaev

5.16

Strikes / min

3.65

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

53%

Strike defense

56%

0.11

TDs / 15 min

0.79

79%

Takedown defense

87%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.66evenly matched on net striking+1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PereiraMagomed Ankalaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Pereira(10 fights)Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.5|Blue +14.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PereiraTargetMagomed Ankalaev

By target zone

19% acc · 14%

Head

32% acc · 38%

68% acc · 22%

Body

77% acc · 32%

87% acc · 63%

Leg

97% acc · 30%

By position

53% acc · 91%

Distance

47% acc · 80%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

90% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Pereira rounds

even

Magomed Ankalaev rounds

Round 1Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 4Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:50Control

Round 5Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 137

Sig Strikes

94 / 180

56.4%

Sig Str %

52.6%

97 / 159

Total Strikes

127 / 224

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 12

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Magomed Ankalaev	9 / 27	12 / 30	0 / 1
1	Alex Pereira	16 / 34	20 / 38	0 / 0
2	Magomed Ankalaev	29 / 53	29 / 53	0 / 0
2	Alex Pereira	18 / 36	18 / 36	0 / 0
3	Magomed Ankalaev	17 / 40	18 / 41	0 / 1
3	Alex Pereira	21 / 34	21 / 34	0 / 1
4	Alex Pereira	7 / 12	23 / 29	0 / 0
4	Magomed Ankalaev	19 / 24	45 / 61	0 / 6
5	Magomed Ankalaev	20 / 36	23 / 39	0 / 4
5	Alex Pereira	14 / 21	15 / 22	0 / 0

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16