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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alex Pereira won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1523

Elo1502

Alex PereiravsKhalil Rountree Jr.UFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Alex Pereira won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 4:32

Style matchupAlex Pereira: Pressure fightervsKhalil Rountree Jr.: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(81.1%)

Actual result: Alex Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Pereira at -425 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Pereira is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Khalil Rountree Jr. has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Khalil Rountree Jr. is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Alex Pereira has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Alex Pereira has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Khalil Rountree Jr. (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Pereira

Red Corner

Khalil Rountree Jr.

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1523

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Apr 24

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Khalil Rountree Jr.

oldest →

vs Dustin Jacoby · Oct 22

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Aug 23

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 23

vs Jamahal Hill · Jun 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PereiraMetricKhalil Rountree Jr.

5.16

Strikes / min

3.88

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

53%

Strike defense

49%

0.11

TDs / 15 min

0.00

79%

Takedown defense

58%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.66Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PereiraKhalil Rountree Jr.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Pereira(10 fights)Khalil Rountree Jr.(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PereiraTargetKhalil Rountree Jr.

By target zone

55% acc · 72%

Head

22% acc · 56%

85% acc · 13%

Body

70% acc · 26%

82% acc · 14%

Leg

85% acc · 18%

By position

123

60% acc · 97%

Distance

32% acc · 98%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Pereira rounds

even

Khalil Rountree Jr. rounds

Round 1Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes63

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

127 / 209

Sig Strikes

61 / 191

57.3%

Sig Str %

30.8%

129 / 211

Total Strikes

62 / 193

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Khalil Rountree Jr.	10 / 42	10 / 42	0 / 0
1	Alex Pereira	15 / 27	15 / 27	0 / 0
2	Alex Pereira	18 / 41	18 / 41	0 / 0
2	Khalil Rountree Jr.	11 / 42	11 / 42	0 / 0
3	Khalil Rountree Jr.	25 / 54	25 / 54	0 / 0
3	Alex Pereira	31 / 49	31 / 49	0 / 0
4	Khalil Rountree Jr.	15 / 53	16 / 55	0 / 0
4	Alex Pereira	63 / 92	65 / 94	0 / 0

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Khalil Rountree Jr.

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17