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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alex Pereira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1523

Elo1503

Alex PereiravsJiri ProchazkaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Pereira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:13

Style matchupAlex Pereira: Pressure fightervsJiri Prochazka: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Alex Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Pereira at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Pereira is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Jiri Prochazka has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Jiri Prochazka is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Alex Pereira has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Pereira

Red Corner

Jiri Prochazka

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+114

(47%)

1523

Elo

1503

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Apr 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Jiri Prochazka

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Nov 23

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · Apr 24

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Jan 25

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PereiraMetricJiri Prochazka

5.16

Strikes / min

5.61

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

53%

Strike defense

45%

0.11

TDs / 15 min

0.49

79%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.66Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PereiraJiri Prochazka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Pereira(10 fights)Jiri Prochazka(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.0|Blue -20.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PereiraTargetJiri Prochazka

By target zone

66% acc · 55%

Head

20% acc · 57%

89% acc · 21%

Body

50% acc · 29%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

68% acc · 55%

Distance

25% acc · 86%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

83% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Pereira rounds

even

Jiri Prochazka rounds

Round 1Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 50

Sig Strikes

7 / 25

78%

Sig Str %

28%

49 / 61

Total Strikes

7 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jiri Prochazka	7 / 25	7 / 25	0 / 0
1	Alex Pereira	27 / 37	38 / 48	0 / 0
2	Jiri Prochazka	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
2	Alex Pereira	11 / 13	11 / 13	0 / 0

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Jiri Prochazka

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8