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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alex Pereira won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1523

Elo1485

Alex PereiravsJamahal HillUFC Prediction Result

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Saturday, April 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Pereira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:14

Style matchupAlex Pereira: Pressure fightervsJamahal Hill: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Alex Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Pereira at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Pereira is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Jamahal Hill has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Jamahal Hill is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Alex Pereira has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Jamahal Hill (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Pereira

Red Corner

Jamahal Hill

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1523

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Jamahal HillL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Feb 22

KOvs Thiago Santos · Aug 22

vs Glover Teixeira · Jan 23

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jan 25

vs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PereiraMetricJamahal Hill

5.16

Strikes / min

6.19

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

53%

Strike defense

44%

0.11

TDs / 15 min

0.00

79%

Takedown defense

73%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.66evenly matched on net striking+2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PereiraJamahal Hill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Pereira(10 fights)Jamahal Hill(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.0|Blue -38.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -294.0|Blue +294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PereiraTargetJamahal Hill

By target zone

80% acc · 50%

Head

14% acc · 8%

100% acc · 25%

Body

50% acc · 25%

67% acc · 25%

Leg

89% acc · 67%

By position

81% acc · 54%

Distance

55% acc · 100%

Clinch

79% acc · 46%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Pereira rounds

even

Jamahal Hill rounds

Round 1Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 30

Sig Strikes

12 / 22

80%

Sig Str %

54%

24 / 30

Total Strikes

12 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jamahal Hill	12 / 22	12 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Alex Pereira	24 / 30	24 / 30	0 / 0	0

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Jamahal Hill

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11