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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Israel Adesanya won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1523

Elo1464

Alex PereiravsIsrael AdesanyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2023Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:21

Style matchupAlex Pereira: Pressure fightervsIsrael Adesanya: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Alex Pereira is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Israel Adesanya has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Pereira

Red Corner

Israel Adesanya

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1523

Elo

1464

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'4"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Israel AdesanyaL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Nov 22

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PereiraMetricIsrael Adesanya

5.16

Strikes / min

4.03

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

53%

Strike defense

55%

0.11

TDs / 15 min

0.05

79%

Takedown defense

76%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.66evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PereiraIsrael Adesanya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Pereira(10 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.0|Blue -59.0

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PereiraTargetIsrael Adesanya

By target zone

29% acc · 16%

Head

30% acc · 44%

71% acc · 31%

Body

58% acc · 34%

72% acc · 53%

Leg

82% acc · 22%

By position

58% acc · 98%

Distance

43% acc · 98%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Pereira rounds

even

Israel Adesanya rounds

Round 1Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 85

Sig Strikes

41 / 96

58.5%

Sig Str %

41.5%

49 / 85

Total Strikes

41 / 96

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Israel Adesanya	15 / 38	15 / 38	0 / 0
1	Alex Pereira	20 / 31	20 / 31	0 / 0
2	Israel Adesanya	26 / 58	26 / 58	0 / 0
2	Alex Pereira	29 / 54	29 / 54	0 / 0

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19