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Interim Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Ciryl Gane won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1523

Elo1531

Alex PereiravsCiryl GaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Freedom 250 · Sunday, June 14, 2026Washington, USA

Official fight result

Ciryl Gane won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:27

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Ciryl Gane

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Ciryl Gane at -110 American odds · hypothetical only

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Style matchupAlex Pereira: Pressure fightervsCiryl Gane: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Ciryl Gane wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Pereira has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Pereira

Red Corner

Ciryl Gane

Blue Corner

-113

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1523

Elo

1531

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Apr 24

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

latest

Ciryl Gane

oldest →

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 22

SUBvs Jon Jones · Mar 23

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Sep 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24

vs Tom Aspinall · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PereiraMetricCiryl Gane

5.16

Strikes / min

5.29

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

53%

Strike defense

60%

0.11

TDs / 15 min

0.68

79%

Takedown defense

47%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.66Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap+2.96

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Pereira(10 fights)Ciryl Gane(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.9|Blue +7.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PereiraTargetCiryl Gane

By target zone

15% acc · 25%

Head

55% acc · 72%

33% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 7%

80% acc · 67%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

55% acc · 67%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

88% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Pereira rounds

even

Ciryl Gane rounds

Round 1Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 33

Sig Strikes

54 / 86

28%

Sig Str %

63%

12 / 33

Total Strikes

54 / 86

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ciryl Gane	23 / 45	23 / 45	0 / 1
1	Alex Pereira	11 / 26	11 / 26	0 / 0
2	Ciryl Gane	31 / 41	31 / 41	0 / 1
2	Alex Pereira	1 / 7	1 / 7	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Alex Pereira

Odds

-113

Market-implied probability

Ciryl Gane 50%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Alex Pereira$188

Ciryl Gane (model pick · research)$191

50% market-implied · model 40% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Ciryl Gane

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights13