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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Alex Pereira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1453

Alex PereiravsBruno SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 12, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Pereira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Pereira: Pressure fightervsBruno Silva: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Alex Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Pereira at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bruno Silva is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Alex Pereira has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Alex Pereira has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Pereira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Pereira

Red Corner

Bruno Silva

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1523

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Bruno SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Jun 25

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Oct 25

vs Charles Johnson · Mar 26

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PereiraMetricBruno Silva

5.16

Strikes / min

3.86

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

53%

Strike defense

41%

0.11

TDs / 15 min

0.77

79%

Takedown defense

74%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.66Δ 3.15 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PereiraBruno Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Pereira(10 fights)Bruno Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.3|Blue -70.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PereiraTargetBruno Silva

By target zone

50% acc · 56%

Head

33% acc · 66%

82% acc · 38%

Body

50% acc · 14%

78% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

57% acc · 80%

Distance

39% acc · 88%

81% acc · 20%

Clinch

54% acc · 12%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Pereira rounds

even

Bruno Silva rounds

Round 1Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 2Bruno Silva edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:07

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 3Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control1:10

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

108 / 179

Sig Strikes

59 / 147

58.7%

Sig Str %

38%

165 / 239

Total Strikes

72 / 160

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 8

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

3:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bruno Silva	16 / 46	19 / 49	1 / 1
1	Alex Pereira	27 / 51	31 / 55	0 / 0
2	Bruno Silva	31 / 64	32 / 65	1 / 2
2	Alex Pereira	33 / 58	53 / 79	0 / 0
3	Bruno Silva	12 / 37	21 / 46	0 / 5
3	Alex Pereira	48 / 70	81 / 105	0 / 0

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Bruno Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights23