Middleweight

3 Rounds

Alex Pereira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1523

Elo1426

Alex PereiravsAndreas MichailidisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Alex Pereira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:18

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Alex Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Pereira at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Pereira is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Andreas Michailidis has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Alex Pereira has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Pereira

Red Corner

Andreas Michailidis

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1523

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Andreas Michailidis

oldest →

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 20

vs KB Bhullar · May 21

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex PereiraMetricAndreas Michailidis

5.16

Strikes / min

2.90

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.57

53%

Strike defense

44%

0.11

TDs / 15 min

1.12

79%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.66Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex PereiraAndreas Michailidis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Pereira(10 fights)Andreas Michailidis(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +97.3|Blue -97.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex PereiraTargetAndreas Michailidis

By target zone

40% acc · 36%

Head

50% acc · 100%

83% acc · 45%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 18%

Leg

0% acc

By position

44% acc · 36%

Distance

0% acc

86% acc · 55%

Clinch

40% acc · 67%

50% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Pereira rounds

even

Andreas Michailidis rounds

Round 1Andreas Michailidis edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:59Control

Round 2Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 18

Sig Strikes

3 / 11

57%

Sig Str %

15%

25 / 33

Total Strikes

11 / 19

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 7

—

TD %

28%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

3:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andreas Michailidis	3 / 10	11 / 18	2 / 7
1	Alex Pereira	9 / 14	23 / 29	0 / 0
2	Andreas Michailidis	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0
2	Alex Pereira	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Andreas Michailidis

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4