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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Morono won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1478

Elo1491

Alex MoronovsZak OttowUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Alex Morono won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:34

Style matchupAlex Morono: Pressure fightervsZak Ottow: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alex Morono wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Alex Morono wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Morono at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Morono

Red Corner

Zak Ottow

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1478

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Zak Ottow

oldest →

vs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 17

KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 17

KOvs Mike Pyle · Mar 18

KOvs Sage Northcutt · Jul 18

vs Dwight Grant · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex MoronoMetricZak Ottow

4.90

Strikes / min

2.63

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

2.73

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

0.97

47%

Takedown defense

57%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex MoronoZak Ottow

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Morono(10 fights)Zak Ottow(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.9|Blue +13.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex MoronoTargetZak Ottow

By target zone

44% acc · 88%

Head

30% acc · 60%

60% acc · 12%

Body

29% acc · 20%

Leg

50% acc · 20%

By position

36% acc · 40%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

Clinch

56% acc · 60%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Morono rounds

even

Zak Ottow rounds

Round 1Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:31

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 55

Sig Strikes

10 / 31

45%

Sig Str %

32%

25 / 55

Total Strikes

10 / 31

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zak Ottow	10 / 31	10 / 31	1 / 1	0
1	Alex Morono	25 / 55	25 / 55	0 / 0	1

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23

Zak Ottow

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8