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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Morono won · U-DEC R3

Elo1478

Elo1487

Alex MoronovsMatthew SemelsbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Saturday, July 30, 2022Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alex Morono won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Matthew Semelsberger wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Alex Morono wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Semelsberger at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Morono

Red Corner

Matthew Semelsberger

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1478

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23

vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex MoronoMetricMatthew Semelsberger

4.90

Strikes / min

3.77

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

1.01

47%

Takedown defense

45%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex MoronoMatthew Semelsberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Morono(10 fights)Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.8|Blue +9.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex MoronoTargetMatthew Semelsberger

By target zone

51% acc · 87%

Head

19% acc · 43%

93% acc · 13%

Body

64% acc · 28%

Leg

81% acc · 28%

By position

53% acc · 92%

Distance

29% acc · 81%

78% acc · 7%

Clinch

75% acc · 12%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

63% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Morono rounds

even

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

Round 1Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:05

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 3Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:34Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

106 / 194

Sig Strikes

74 / 229

54.3%

Sig Str %

32%

119 / 209

Total Strikes

86 / 241

0 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

2:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matthew Semelsberger	22 / 75	22 / 75	0 / 0
1	Alex Morono	30 / 69	33 / 72	0 / 1
2	Matthew Semelsberger	26 / 87	32 / 93	1 / 1
2	Alex Morono	47 / 76	47 / 77	0 / 2
3	Matthew Semelsberger	26 / 67	32 / 73	0 / 0
3	Alex Morono	29 / 49	39 / 60	0 / 1

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11