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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Joaquin Buckley won · U-DEC R3

Elo1478

Elo1516

Alex MoronovsJoaquin BuckleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Saturday, October 7, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joaquin Buckley won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Morono: Pressure fightervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Joaquin Buckley wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joaquin Buckley at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Joaquin Buckley has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).
Joaquin Buckley has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Morono

Red Corner

Joaquin Buckley

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1478

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex MoronoMetricJoaquin Buckley

4.90

Strikes / min

3.62

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

1.43

47%

Takedown defense

70%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex MoronoJoaquin Buckley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Morono(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.4|Blue +38.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex MoronoTargetJoaquin Buckley

By target zone

24% acc · 73%

Head

31% acc · 60%

59% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 35%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

28% acc · 93%

Distance

39% acc · 81%

38% acc · 8%

Clinch

22% acc · 3%

Ground

42% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Morono rounds

even

Joaquin Buckley rounds

Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:13

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 141

Sig Strikes

68 / 176

29%

Sig Str %

36%

54 / 161

Total Strikes

77 / 186

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 4

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

2:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joaquin Buckley	10 / 41	14 / 45	2 / 4
1	Alex Morono	12 / 33	12 / 35	0 / 0
2	Joaquin Buckley	18 / 45	18 / 45	0 / 0
2	Alex Morono	15 / 52	25 / 62	0 / 0
3	Joaquin Buckley	40 / 90	45 / 96	0 / 0
3	Alex Morono	13 / 56	17 / 64	1 / 2

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17