Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Morono won · U-DEC R3

Elo1478

Elo1407

Alex MoronovsDavid ZawadaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Saturday, September 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Morono won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Morono: Pressure fightervsDavid Zawada: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Alex Morono wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Alex Morono wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Morono at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Morono

Red Corner

David Zawada

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1478

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

David Zawada

oldest →

vs Danny Roberts · Jul 18

KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 18

SUBvs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Nov 19

vs Ramazan Emeev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex MoronoMetricDavid Zawada

4.90

Strikes / min

3.84

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.54

55%

Strike defense

55%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

0.97

47%

Takedown defense

57%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex MoronoDavid Zawada

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Morono(10 fights)David Zawada(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.6|Blue -70.6

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex MoronoTargetDavid Zawada

By target zone

41% acc · 90%

Head

26% acc · 45%

67% acc · 9%

Body

85% acc · 48%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

86% acc · 7%

By position

41% acc · 93%

Distance

41% acc · 90%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Morono rounds

even

David Zawada rounds

Round 1Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:05

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2David Zawada edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:01

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:39Control

Fight Stats

Totals

90 / 213

Sig Strikes

86 / 205

42.3%

Sig Str %

41.7%

96 / 219

Total Strikes

91 / 210

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:06

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Zawada	33 / 83	34 / 84	0 / 0
1	Alex Morono	37 / 84	39 / 86	0 / 0
2	David Zawada	31 / 74	31 / 74	0 / 0
2	Alex Morono	29 / 76	29 / 76	0 / 0
3	David Zawada	22 / 48	26 / 52	1 / 2
3	Alex Morono	24 / 53	28 / 57	0 / 0

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23

David Zawada

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5