Welterweight

3 Rounds

Daniil Donchenko won · U-DEC R3

Elo1478

Elo1562

Alex MoronovsDaniil DonchenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Saturday, February 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniil Donchenko won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Morono: Pressure fightervsDaniil Donchenko: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Daniil Donchenko wins(92.3%)

Actual result: Daniil Donchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniil Donchenko at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniil Donchenko has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Daniil Donchenko has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Morono

Red Corner

Daniil Donchenko

Blue Corner

+610

(14%)

Vegas Odds

-900

(90%)

1478

Elo

1562

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex MoronoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 23

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

latest

Daniil DonchenkoW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rodrigo Sezinando · Sep 25

KOvs Theodor Berggren · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex MoronoMetricDaniil Donchenko

4.90

Strikes / min

7.15

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

55%

Strike defense

72%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

0.77

47%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02Δ 4.56 — meaningful gap+4.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex MoronoDaniil Donchenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Morono(10 fights)Daniil Donchenko(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -84.5|Blue +84.5

Recent Form

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +189.0|Blue -189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex MoronoTargetDaniil Donchenko

By target zone

27% acc · 93%

Head

45% acc · 45%

29% acc · 5%

Body

75% acc · 21%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

97% acc · 34%

By position

26% acc · 90%

Distance

61% acc · 82%

44% acc · 10%

Clinch

64% acc · 7%

Ground

65% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Morono rounds

even

Daniil Donchenko rounds

Round 1Daniil Donchenko edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:44Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Daniil Donchenko edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Daniil Donchenko edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 146

Sig Strikes

100 / 162

27.3%

Sig Str %

62%

48 / 154

Total Strikes

134 / 214

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniil Donchenko	39 / 59	70 / 108	0 / 0
1	Alex Morono	16 / 38	22 / 44	0 / 0
2	Daniil Donchenko	27 / 40	30 / 43	0 / 0
2	Alex Morono	6 / 43	7 / 44	0 / 0
3	Daniil Donchenko	34 / 63	34 / 63	0 / 0
3	Alex Morono	18 / 65	19 / 66	0 / 0

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23

Daniil Donchenko

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4