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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Leal won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1478

Elo1511

Alex MoronovsCarlos LealUFC Prediction Result

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Leal won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:16

Style matchupAlex Morono: Pressure fightervsCarlos Leal: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Carlos Leal wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Carlos Leal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Leal at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Carlos Leal has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Morono

Red Corner

Carlos Leal

Blue Corner

+530

(16%)

Vegas Odds

-750

(88%)

1478

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex MoronoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 23

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Carlos Leal

oldest →

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Oct 24

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 25

vs Chidi Njokuani · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex MoronoMetricCarlos Leal

4.90

Strikes / min

8.75

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

7.78

55%

Strike defense

48%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

0.43

47%

Takedown defense

90%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex MoronoCarlos Leal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Morono(10 fights)Carlos Leal(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.9|Blue +33.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex MoronoTargetCarlos Leal

By target zone

39% acc · 80%

Head

55% acc · 62%

44% acc · 10%

Body

97% acc · 35%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

40% acc · 88%

Distance

59% acc · 68%

63% acc · 13%

Clinch

86% acc · 32%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Morono rounds

even

Carlos Leal rounds

Round 1Carlos Leal edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:20

79Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 95

Sig Strikes

79 / 120

42%

Sig Str %

65%

41 / 96

Total Strikes

81 / 123

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlos Leal	79 / 120	81 / 123	0 / 0	0
1	Alex Morono	40 / 95	41 / 96	0 / 1	0

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23

Carlos Leal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4