Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Damir Ismagulov won · U-DEC R3
Elo1491
Elo1469
Damir Ismagulov

Alex GorgeesvsDamir IsmagulovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Damir Ismagulov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Gorgees wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Damir Ismagulov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Gorgees at +425 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Damir Ismagulov has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Damir Ismagulov has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Alex Gorgees (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Gorgees
Red Corner
VS
Damir Ismagulov
Blue Corner
+425
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-550
(85%)
1491
Elo
1469
30
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex GorgeesNo prior UFC fights on record.
Damir IsmagulovL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19
W
vs Rafael Alves · May 21
W
vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22
L
vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex GorgeesMetricDamir Ismagulov
0.67
Strikes / min
3.36
2.27
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
38%
Strike defense
61%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.00
54%
Takedown defense
70%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.60Δ 2.52 — meaningful gap+0.92
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alex Gorgees(1 fights)Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +22.3|Blue -22.3
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex GorgeesTargetDamir Ismagulov

By target zone

5
24% acc · 50%
Head
22
58% acc · 65%
3
60% acc · 30%
Body
9
69% acc · 26%
2
40% acc · 20%
Leg
3
75% acc · 9%

By position

5
19% acc · 50%
Distance
20
63% acc · 59%
5
100% acc · 50%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 9%
0
Ground
11
55% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Alex Gorgees rounds
0
even
3
Damir Ismagulov rounds
Round 1Damir Ismagulov edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:37Control
Round 2Damir Ismagulov edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:42Control
Round 3Damir Ismagulov edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:30Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
10 / 31
Sig Strikes
34 / 55
36.3%
Sig Str %
62.3%
22 / 43
Total Strikes
103 / 137
0 / 0
TDs
5 / 11
—
TD %
46.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
9:49

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Damir Ismagulov10 / 1922 / 332 / 50
1Alex Gorgees4 / 149 / 190 / 00
2Damir Ismagulov12 / 2051 / 621 / 20
2Alex Gorgees1 / 103 / 120 / 00
3Damir Ismagulov12 / 1630 / 422 / 40
3Alex Gorgees5 / 710 / 120 / 00

Alex Gorgees

StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights1

Damir Ismagulov

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7