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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Strickland won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1368

Elo1530

Alex GarciavsSean StricklandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · Sunday, February 21, 2016Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Sean Strickland won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:25

Style matchupAlex Garcia: WrestlervsSean Strickland: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Sean Strickland wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Sean Strickland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Strickland at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Strickland has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Garcia

Red Corner

Sean Strickland

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1368

Elo

1530

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex GarciaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 16

vs Tim Means · Jun 17

SUBvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 17

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 18

latest

Sean StricklandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex GarciaMetricSean Strickland

1.81

Strikes / min

5.98

3.03

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

59%

Strike defense

60%

3.72

TDs / 15 min

0.66

66%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.22Δ 2.67 — meaningful gap+1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex GarciaSean Strickland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Garcia(10 fights)Sean Strickland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -161.9|Blue +161.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex GarciaTargetSean Strickland

By target zone

33% acc · 87%

Head

44% acc · 80%

60% acc · 13%

Body

80% acc · 5%

0% acc

Leg

93% acc · 15%

By position

26% acc · 57%

Distance

44% acc · 75%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

88% acc · 8%

53% acc · 35%

Ground

64% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Garcia rounds

even

Sean Strickland rounds

Round 1Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:52

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:48Control

Round 2Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:56

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:43

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 67

Sig Strikes

84 / 173

36.3%

Sig Str %

49.7%

41 / 94

Total Strikes

113 / 206

3 / 7

TDs

1 / 2

58.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:31

Ctrl Time

2:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Strickland	19 / 34	44 / 62	1 / 2
1	Alex Garcia	7 / 14	14 / 27	1 / 2
2	Sean Strickland	31 / 62	35 / 67	0 / 0
2	Alex Garcia	10 / 30	20 / 43	1 / 1
3	Sean Strickland	34 / 77	34 / 77	0 / 0
3	Alex Garcia	6 / 23	7 / 24	1 / 4

Alex Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25