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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Court McGee won · U-DEC R3

Elo1368

Elo1493

Alex GarciavsCourt McGeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · Saturday, October 27, 2018Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada

Official fight result

Court McGee won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Garcia: WrestlervsCourt McGee: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Court McGee wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Court McGee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Court McGee at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Alex Garcia

Red Corner

Court McGee

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1368

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Garcia

oldest →

KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 16

KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 16

vs Tim Means · Jun 17

SUBvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 17

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 18

latest

Court McGee

oldest →

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 22

KOvs Matt Brown · May 23

vs Alex Morono · Apr 24

SUBvs Tim Means · Oct 24

vs Michael Chiesa · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex GarciaMetricCourt McGee

1.81

Strikes / min

4.50

3.03

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

59%

Strike defense

60%

3.72

TDs / 15 min

1.78

66%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.22Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex GarciaCourt McGee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Garcia(10 fights)Court McGee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.2|Blue +124.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -161.0|Blue +161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex GarciaTargetCourt McGee

By target zone

34% acc · 63%

Head

49% acc · 63%

100% acc · 15%

Body

69% acc · 18%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

34% acc · 52%

Distance

45% acc · 47%

77% acc · 37%

Clinch

17% acc · 2%

50% acc · 11%

Ground

90% acc · 51%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Garcia rounds

even

Court McGee rounds

Round 1Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:28

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:53Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:31

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 60

Sig Strikes

51 / 88

49%

Sig Str %

59.3%

39 / 73

Total Strikes

111 / 154

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 6

16.7%

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:05

Ctrl Time

6:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Court McGee	15 / 35	22 / 44	1 / 3
1	Alex Garcia	9 / 29	13 / 33	0 / 1
2	Court McGee	20 / 31	55 / 68	1 / 1
2	Alex Garcia	9 / 15	16 / 23	0 / 1
3	Court McGee	16 / 22	34 / 42	0 / 2
3	Alex Garcia	9 / 16	10 / 17	1 / 2

Alex Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Court McGee

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24