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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Alex Chambers won · SUB R3

Elo1368

Elo1363

Alex ChambersvsKailin CurranUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · Saturday, May 9, 2015Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Alex Chambers won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:15

Style matchupAlex Chambers: WrestlervsKailin Curran: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kailin Curran wins(83.3%)

Actual result: Alex Chambers wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kailin Curran at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Chambers enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Kailin Curran enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alex Chambers threatens submissions; Kailin Curran has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Kailin Curran threatens submissions; Alex Chambers has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Chambers (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Chambers

Red Corner

Kailin Curran

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1368

Elo

1363

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'4"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex ChambersL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Aisling Daly · Dec 14

SUBvs Paige VanZant · Sep 15

vs Nadia Kassem · Nov 17

SUBvs Livinha Souza · Sep 18

latest

Kailin CurranL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Emily Peters Kagan · Dec 15

SUBvs Felice Herrig · Jul 16

vs Jamie Moyle · Dec 16

DECvs Alexandra Albu · Jul 17

DECvs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex ChambersMetricKailin Curran

2.97

Strikes / min

3.89

5.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.75

50%

Strike defense

53%

2.31

TDs / 15 min

2.00

53%

Takedown defense

61%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.13Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex ChambersKailin Curran

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Chambers(5 fights)Kailin Curran(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.9|Blue -4.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -20.0|Blue +20.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex ChambersTargetKailin Curran

By target zone

29% acc · 41%

Head

34% acc · 62%

67% acc · 32%

Body

59% acc · 16%

48% acc · 27%

Leg

82% acc · 22%

By position

39% acc · 77%

Distance

39% acc · 67%

48% acc · 23%

Clinch

49% acc · 22%

Ground

69% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Chambers rounds

even

Kailin Curran rounds

Round 1Kailin Curran edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control0:58

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 2Kailin Curran edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 3Kailin Curran edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:50Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 109

Sig Strikes

81 / 190

40.7%

Sig Str %

43%

53 / 121

Total Strikes

123 / 239

2 / 5

TDs

2 / 4

25%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

4:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kailin Curran	29 / 76	58 / 109	0 / 2	0
1	Alex Chambers	21 / 47	28 / 57	2 / 4	0
2	Kailin Curran	38 / 84	49 / 98	1 / 1	0
2	Alex Chambers	15 / 44	17 / 46	0 / 1	0
3	Kailin Curran	14 / 30	16 / 32	1 / 1	0
3	Alex Chambers	8 / 18	8 / 18	0 / 0	2

Alex Chambers

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5

Kailin Curran

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7