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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1455

Alex CaceresvsSteven PetersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Saturday, July 20, 2019San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsSteven Peterson: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Steven Peterson

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1500

Elo

1455

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Steven PetersonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Luis Pena · Mar 19

KOvs Martin Bravo · Sep 19

vs Chase Hooper · Jun 21

vs Julian Erosa · Feb 22

vs Lucas Alexander · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricSteven Peterson

4.21

Strikes / min

4.76

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

5.94

62%

Strike defense

53%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.42

64%

Takedown defense

64%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 2.30 — meaningful gap-1.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresSteven Peterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Steven Peterson(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.3|Blue -44.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +34.0|Blue -34.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetSteven Peterson

By target zone

41% acc · 67%

Head

24% acc · 61%

69% acc · 29%

Body

41% acc · 19%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

87% acc · 19%

By position

47% acc · 97%

Distance

30% acc · 97%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Steven Peterson rounds

Round 1Steven Peterson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 2Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 197

Sig Strikes

67 / 218

47.7%

Sig Str %

31%

95 / 198

Total Strikes

87 / 241

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steven Peterson	19 / 54	25 / 61	1 / 1
1	Alex Caceres	20 / 41	20 / 41	0 / 0
2	Steven Peterson	24 / 87	25 / 88	0 / 0
2	Alex Caceres	43 / 74	43 / 74	0 / 0
3	Steven Peterson	24 / 77	37 / 92	1 / 1
3	Alex Caceres	31 / 82	32 / 83	0 / 0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Steven Peterson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8