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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · SUB R2

Elo1500

Elo1487

Alex CaceresvsSeungWoo ChoiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Saturday, October 23, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:31

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsSeungWoo Choi: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Caceres has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

SeungWoo Choi

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1500

Elo

1487

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

SeungWoo ChoiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Culibao · Jun 22

KOvs Michael Trizano · Nov 22

vs Jarno Errens · Aug 23

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jul 24

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricSeungWoo Choi

4.21

Strikes / min

3.56

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

62%

Strike defense

47%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.83

64%

Takedown defense

70%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresSeungWoo Choi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)SeungWoo Choi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.5|Blue -12.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetSeungWoo Choi

By target zone

67% acc · 48%

Head

23% acc · 55%

76% acc · 28%

Body

69% acc · 33%

79% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

69% acc · 80%

Distance

31% acc · 79%

90% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

Ground

40% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

SeungWoo Choi rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:49

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 64

Sig Strikes

33 / 98

71%

Sig Str %

35.5%

54 / 72

Total Strikes

38 / 104

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:49

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	SeungWoo Choi	19 / 65	22 / 69	0 / 0	0
1	Alex Caceres	29 / 39	29 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	SeungWoo Choi	14 / 33	16 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Alex Caceres	17 / 25	25 / 33	0 / 0	1

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

SeungWoo Choi

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8