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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · SUB R3

Elo1500

Elo1492

Alex CaceresvsSergio PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · Saturday, January 25, 2014Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:39

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsSergio Pettis: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Sergio Pettis wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Pettis at -192 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Alex Caceres has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Sergio Pettis

Blue Corner

+177

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-192

(66%)

1500

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Sergio Pettis

oldest →

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18

vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18

vs Rob Font · Dec 18

vs Tyson Nam · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricSergio Pettis

4.21

Strikes / min

3.88

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

62%

Strike defense

65%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.85

64%

Takedown defense

67%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresSergio Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Sergio Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.9|Blue -7.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetSergio Pettis

By target zone

26% acc · 58%

Head

24% acc · 73%

50% acc · 30%

Body

42% acc · 16%

55% acc · 11%

Leg

83% acc · 10%

By position

31% acc · 92%

Distance

27% acc · 96%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Sergio Pettis rounds

Round 1Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:32

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:01

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 164

Sig Strikes

49 / 177

32.7%

Sig Str %

27.7%

56 / 168

Total Strikes

49 / 177

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sergio Pettis	19 / 73	19 / 73	0 / 0	0
1	Alex Caceres	16 / 65	16 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Sergio Pettis	13 / 51	13 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Alex Caceres	12 / 48	12 / 48	0 / 0	0
3	Sergio Pettis	17 / 53	17 / 53	1 / 2	0
3	Alex Caceres	25 / 51	28 / 55	1 / 1	1

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14