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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Sean Woodson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1517

Alex CaceresvsSean WoodsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · Saturday, May 11, 2024St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Sean Woodson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsSean Woodson: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Sean Woodson wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Sean Woodson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Woodson at -298 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Woodson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Sean Woodson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Sean Woodson

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-298

(75%)

1500

Elo

1517

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex Caceres

oldest →

SUBvs SeungWoo Choi · Oct 21

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

latest

Sean Woodson

oldest →

KOvs Collin Anglin · Nov 21

vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 23

vs Charles Jourdain · Jan 24

KOvs Fernando Padilla · Dec 24

KOvs Dan Ige · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricSean Woodson

4.21

Strikes / min

5.57

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

4.18

62%

Strike defense

58%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.58

64%

Takedown defense

84%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresSean Woodson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Sean Woodson(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.2|Blue +17.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetSean Woodson

By target zone

30% acc · 52%

Head

36% acc · 60%

70% acc · 34%

Body

68% acc · 19%

79% acc · 13%

Leg

78% acc · 21%

By position

42% acc · 96%

Distance

44% acc · 97%

43% acc · 4%

Clinch

75% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Sean Woodson rounds

Round 1Sean Woodson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:04

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sean Woodson edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:08

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 197

Sig Strikes

101 / 226

40.3%

Sig Str %

44.7%

85 / 200

Total Strikes

101 / 226

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Woodson	31 / 63	31 / 63	0 / 0
1	Alex Caceres	18 / 49	18 / 49	0 / 0
2	Sean Woodson	31 / 71	31 / 71	0 / 0
2	Alex Caceres	32 / 73	32 / 73	0 / 0
3	Sean Woodson	39 / 92	39 / 92	0 / 0
3	Alex Caceres	32 / 75	35 / 78	0 / 0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Sean Woodson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9