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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1500

Elo1491

Alex CaceresvsRolando DyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · Saturday, June 17, 2017Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsRolando Dy: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Caceres has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Alex Caceres has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Rolando Dy

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1500

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Rolando Dy

oldest →

vs Teruto Ishihara · Sep 17

vs Wuliji Buren · Nov 17

KOvs Shane Young · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricRolando Dy

4.21

Strikes / min

3.04

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

4.47

62%

Strike defense

52%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.30

64%

Takedown defense

68%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 2.55 — meaningful gap-1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresRolando Dy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Rolando Dy(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.7|Blue -8.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -47.7|Blue +47.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetRolando Dy

By target zone

51% acc · 75%

Head

20% acc · 45%

71% acc · 20%

Body

42% acc · 25%

75% acc · 6%

Leg

67% acc · 30%

By position

55% acc · 82%

Distance

32% acc · 95%

45% acc · 10%

Clinch

20% acc · 5%

67% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Rolando Dy rounds

Round 1Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control1:36

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:14

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 93

Sig Strikes

20 / 65

54%

Sig Str %

28.5%

56 / 99

Total Strikes

21 / 66

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

1:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rolando Dy	5 / 25	5 / 25	0 / 3	0
1	Alex Caceres	30 / 50	35 / 56	0 / 0	1
2	Rolando Dy	15 / 40	16 / 41	1 / 1	0
2	Alex Caceres	21 / 43	21 / 43	0 / 0	0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Rolando Dy

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4