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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · S-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1352

Alex CaceresvsMotonobu TezukaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · Saturday, November 10, 2012Macau, China

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Caceres has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Caceres has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Alex Caceres has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Motonobu Tezuka

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1500

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Motonobu Tezuka

oldest →

vs Vaughan Lee · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricMotonobu Tezuka

4.21

Strikes / min

0.87

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

62%

Strike defense

51%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.50

64%

Takedown defense

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 3.05 — meaningful gap-1.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresMotonobu Tezuka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Motonobu Tezuka(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +147.8|Blue -147.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetMotonobu Tezuka

By target zone

43% acc · 63%

Head

14% acc · 36%

78% acc · 22%

Body

50% acc · 5%

71% acc · 16%

Leg

76% acc · 59%

By position

48% acc · 86%

Distance

28% acc · 95%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Motonobu Tezuka rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:11

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 2Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 3Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 124

Sig Strikes

22 / 75

51.7%

Sig Str %

42.7%

83 / 143

Total Strikes

40 / 108

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 12

—

TD %

13.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:11

Ctrl Time

3:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Motonobu Tezuka	4 / 6	17 / 30	1 / 6
1	Alex Caceres	10 / 20	21 / 31	0 / 0
2	Motonobu Tezuka	8 / 19	13 / 28	1 / 4
2	Alex Caceres	23 / 41	27 / 45	0 / 0
3	Motonobu Tezuka	10 / 50	10 / 50	0 / 2
3	Alex Caceres	31 / 63	35 / 67	0 / 0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Motonobu Tezuka

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2