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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1356

Alex CaceresvsMasio FullenUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Masio Fullen

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1500

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Masio Fullen

oldest →

vs Alex Torres · Feb 15

SUBvs Makwan Amirkhani · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricMasio Fullen

4.21

Strikes / min

2.46

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

62%

Strike defense

54%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.47

64%

Takedown defense

69%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresMasio Fullen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Masio Fullen(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +143.6|Blue -143.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetMasio Fullen

By target zone

42% acc · 53%

Head

21% acc · 47%

59% acc · 27%

Body

60% acc · 25%

83% acc · 20%

Leg

91% acc · 28%

By position

47% acc · 78%

Distance

33% acc · 94%

74% acc · 19%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Masio Fullen rounds

Round 1Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:38

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:09

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 144

Sig Strikes

36 / 108

51.7%

Sig Str %

33%

80 / 153

Total Strikes

38 / 110

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:47

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Masio Fullen	13 / 32	13 / 32	0 / 1
1	Alex Caceres	20 / 44	20 / 44	1 / 1
2	Masio Fullen	9 / 38	11 / 40	0 / 0
2	Alex Caceres	27 / 41	32 / 49	0 / 1
3	Masio Fullen	14 / 38	14 / 38	0 / 0
3	Alex Caceres	27 / 59	28 / 60	0 / 1

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Masio Fullen

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3