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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Masanori Kanehara won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1356

Alex CaceresvsMasanori KaneharaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · Saturday, September 20, 2014Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Masanori Kanehara won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Masanori Kanehara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at -295 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Alex Caceres has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Masanori Kanehara

Blue Corner

-295

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1500

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Masanori KaneharaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rani Yahya · Jul 15

SUBvs Michael McDonald · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricMasanori Kanehara

4.21

Strikes / min

1.88

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

1.63

62%

Strike defense

62%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.44

64%

Takedown defense

63%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresMasanori Kanehara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Masanori Kanehara(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +143.8|Blue -143.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetMasanori Kanehara

By target zone

23% acc · 58%

Head

47% acc · 91%

45% acc · 21%

Body

0% acc

71% acc · 21%

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

28% acc · 83%

Distance

37% acc · 63%

67% acc · 17%

Clinch

79% acc · 34%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Masanori Kanehara rounds

Round 1Masanori Kanehara edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:13

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:43Control

Round 2Masanori Kanehara edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:48Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:24

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 78

Sig Strikes

32 / 69

58%

Sig Str %

64%

33 / 87

Total Strikes

102 / 145

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

7:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Masanori Kanehara	19 / 32	45 / 61	1 / 2	0
1	Alex Caceres	10 / 19	16 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Masanori Kanehara	1 / 1	43 / 46	1 / 1	2
2	Alex Caceres	1 / 1	3 / 3	0 / 0	0
3	Masanori Kanehara	12 / 36	14 / 38	0 / 1	0
3	Alex Caceres	13 / 58	14 / 59	0 / 0	0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Masanori Kanehara

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3