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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · S-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1376

Alex CaceresvsMartin BravoUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Friday, July 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsMartin Bravo: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Caceres has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Martin Bravo has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Martin Bravo

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1500

Elo

1376

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Martin BravoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 16

KOvs Humberto Bandenay · Aug 17

KOvs Steven Peterson · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricMartin Bravo

4.21

Strikes / min

7.66

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

5.72

62%

Strike defense

51%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

2.60

64%

Takedown defense

85%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12evenly matched on net striking+1.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresMartin Bravo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Martin Bravo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +123.5|Blue -123.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetMartin Bravo

By target zone

45% acc · 73%

Head

30% acc · 78%

87% acc · 24%

Body

59% acc · 13%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

47% acc · 9%

By position

53% acc · 95%

Distance

31% acc · 85%

44% acc · 5%

Clinch

44% acc · 9%

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Martin Bravo rounds

Round 1Martin Bravo edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:03

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:39

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Martin Bravo edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:02

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 159

Sig Strikes

78 / 236

50.7%

Sig Str %

33%

86 / 163

Total Strikes

109 / 270

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 9

TD %

30%

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

3:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Martin Bravo	18 / 49	34 / 66	2 / 5
1	Alex Caceres	21 / 39	24 / 42	0 / 0
2	Martin Bravo	23 / 79	28 / 84	0 / 2
2	Alex Caceres	23 / 52	23 / 52	0 / 0
3	Martin Bravo	37 / 108	47 / 120	1 / 2
3	Alex Caceres	38 / 68	39 / 69	0 / 1

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Martin Bravo

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4