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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mackens Semerzier won · SUB R1

Elo1500

Elo1490

Alex CaceresvsMackens SemerzierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · Saturday, March 26, 2011Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Mackens Semerzier won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:18

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsMackens Semerzier: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mackens Semerzier wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Mackens Semerzier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mackens Semerzier at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mackens Semerzier threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Alex Caceres has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Mackens Semerzier

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1500

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Mackens Semerzier

oldest →

SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricMackens Semerzier

4.21

Strikes / min

2.91

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.48

62%

Strike defense

46%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

2.14

64%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap-0.57

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Mackens Semerzier(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.6|Blue -9.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetMackens Semerzier

By target zone

29% acc · 100%

Head

88% acc · 78%

Body

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

67% acc · 22%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Mackens Semerzier rounds

Round 1Mackens Semerzier edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 7

Sig Strikes

9 / 10

28%

Sig Str %

90%

5 / 10

Total Strikes

24 / 28

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

60%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mackens Semerzier	9 / 10	24 / 28	3 / 5	1
1	Alex Caceres	2 / 7	5 / 10	0 / 0	0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Mackens Semerzier

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2