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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Kron Gracie won · SUB R1

Elo1500

Elo1484

Alex CaceresvsKron GracieUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Sunday, February 17, 2019Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Kron Gracie won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:06

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Kron Gracie wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kron Gracie enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kron Gracie threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Alex Caceres has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Caceres has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Kron Gracie

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1500

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Kron GracieL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cub Swanson · Oct 19

vs Charles Jourdain · May 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricKron Gracie

4.21

Strikes / min

2.95

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

5.73

62%

Strike defense

51%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.35

64%

Takedown defense

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 3.90 — meaningful gap-2.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresKron Gracie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Kron Gracie(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.7|Blue -15.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -47.6|Blue +47.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetKron Gracie

By target zone

23% acc · 75%

Head

17% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

25% acc · 50%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Kron Gracie rounds

Round 1Kron Gracie edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 14

Sig Strikes

2 / 10

28%

Sig Str %

20%

4 / 14

Total Strikes

3 / 11

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kron Gracie	2 / 10	3 / 11	1 / 2	1
1	Alex Caceres	4 / 14	4 / 14	0 / 0	0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Kron Gracie

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4