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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · U-DEC

Elo1500

Elo1421

Alex CaceresvsKevin CroomUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Saturday, February 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Croom enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alex Caceres has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Caceres has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Kevin Croom

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1500

Elo

1421

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Kevin CroomL3 streak

oldest →

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Sep 20

vs Brian Kelleher · Jan 22

KOvs Alatengheili · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricKevin Croom

4.21

Strikes / min

2.65

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

62%

Strike defense

41%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.48

64%

Takedown defense

30%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresKevin Croom

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Kevin Croom(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +78.3|Blue -78.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetKevin Croom

By target zone

67% acc · 69%

Head

23% acc · 63%

85% acc · 23%

Body

50% acc · 6%

67% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 31%

By position

65% acc · 63%

Distance

30% acc · 88%

86% acc · 25%

Clinch

40% acc · 13%

75% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Kevin Croom rounds

Round 1Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:32

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:36Control

Round 2Kevin Croom edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:16Control

Round 3Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control3:09

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 68

Sig Strikes

16 / 51

70.3%

Sig Str %

37.3%

97 / 121

Total Strikes

26 / 67

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 16

100%

TD %

5.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:44

Ctrl Time

7:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Croom	7 / 22	8 / 23	0 / 7	0
1	Alex Caceres	18 / 28	23 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Kevin Croom	5 / 8	11 / 18	1 / 6	0
2	Alex Caceres	8 / 11	26 / 29	0 / 0	1
3	Kevin Croom	4 / 21	7 / 26	0 / 3	0
3	Alex Caceres	22 / 29	48 / 58	1 / 1	0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Kevin Croom

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4