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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1500

Elo1495

Alex CaceresvsJulian ErosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:04

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Erosa at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julian Erosa threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Alex Caceres has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Julian Erosa

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1500

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs SeungWoo Choi · Oct 21

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricJulian Erosa

4.21

Strikes / min

6.18

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

6.31

62%

Strike defense

48%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.73

64%

Takedown defense

61%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresJulian Erosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.1|Blue -5.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetJulian Erosa

By target zone

47% acc · 56%

Head

18% acc · 20%

50% acc · 19%

Body

75% acc · 30%

80% acc · 25%

Leg

71% acc · 50%

By position

54% acc · 81%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Julian Erosa rounds

Round 1Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 30

Sig Strikes

10 / 22

53%

Sig Str %

45%

16 / 30

Total Strikes

10 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julian Erosa	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Alex Caceres	16 / 30	16 / 30	0 / 0	0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18