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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jason Knight won · SUB R2

Elo1500

Elo1369

Alex CaceresvsJason KnightUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Jason Knight won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:21

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsJason Knight: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jason Knight wins(77.3%)

Actual result: Jason Knight wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Knight at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jason Knight enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alex Caceres has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Caceres has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Jason Knight

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1500

Elo

1369

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Jason KnightL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chas Skelly · May 17

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jul 17

vs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 17

vs Makwan Amirkhani · May 18

vs Jordan Rinaldi · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricJason Knight

4.21

Strikes / min

2.95

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

62%

Strike defense

51%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.31

64%

Takedown defense

47%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresJason Knight

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Jason Knight(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.2|Blue -131.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetJason Knight

By target zone

35% acc · 52%

Head

28% acc · 71%

56% acc · 19%

Body

25% acc · 3%

89% acc · 30%

Leg

62% acc · 26%

By position

47% acc · 100%

Distance

26% acc · 71%

Clinch

Ground

82% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Jason Knight rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:01

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Jason Knight edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 58

Sig Strikes

31 / 95

44%

Sig Str %

35.5%

27 / 58

Total Strikes

46 / 112

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jason Knight	17 / 64	17 / 65	1 / 3	1
1	Alex Caceres	22 / 46	22 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Jason Knight	14 / 31	29 / 47	1 / 1	3
2	Alex Caceres	5 / 12	5 / 12	0 / 0	0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Jason Knight

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9