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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Edwin Figueroa won · S-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1353

Alex CaceresvsEdwin FigueroaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Edwin Figueroa won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Edwin Figueroa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edwin Figueroa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alex Caceres has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Caceres has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Alex Caceres has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Edwin Figueroa

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1500

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Edwin FigueroaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael McDonald · Mar 11

KOvs Jason Reinhardt · Aug 11

KOvs Francisco Rivera · Feb 13

vs Roland Delorme · Jun 13

vs Erik Perez · Nov 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricEdwin Figueroa

4.21

Strikes / min

2.57

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

62%

Strike defense

51%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.20

64%

Takedown defense

37%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresEdwin Figueroa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Edwin Figueroa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +147.2|Blue -147.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -90.0|Blue +90.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetEdwin Figueroa

By target zone

56% acc · 64%

Head

41% acc · 59%

68% acc · 24%

Body

69% acc · 22%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

89% acc · 20%

By position

61% acc · 95%

Distance

45% acc · 63%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

56% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Edwin Figueroa rounds

Round 1Edwin Figueroa edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:17

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control1:36

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control2:09

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 89

Sig Strikes

41 / 81

58.7%

Sig Str %

49.7%

76 / 113

Total Strikes

53 / 95

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:02

Ctrl Time

2:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Edwin Figueroa	20 / 37	27 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Alex Caceres	16 / 26	20 / 32	0 / 0	2
2	Edwin Figueroa	8 / 23	11 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Alex Caceres	29 / 41	36 / 49	1 / 1	3
3	Edwin Figueroa	13 / 21	15 / 24	0 / 0	0
3	Alex Caceres	10 / 22	20 / 32	0 / 0	2

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Edwin Figueroa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6