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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1489

Alex CaceresvsDaniel PinedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Saturday, June 3, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Pineda threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Alex Caceres has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Alex Caceres has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Daniel Pineda

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+152

(40%)

1500

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs SeungWoo Choi · Oct 21

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Daniel PinedaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 20

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricDaniel Pineda

4.21

Strikes / min

2.85

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

62%

Strike defense

45%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.42

64%

Takedown defense

54%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresDaniel Pineda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.7|Blue -10.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetDaniel Pineda

By target zone

46% acc · 53%

Head

36% acc · 56%

93% acc · 43%

Body

75% acc · 11%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

90% acc · 33%

By position

59% acc · 75%

Distance

44% acc · 81%

73% acc · 18%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

50% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Daniel Pineda rounds

Round 1Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control3:02

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:43

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:36Control

Round 3Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control0:41

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 99

Sig Strikes

27 / 56

57%

Sig Str %

57.3%

86 / 128

Total Strikes

43 / 74

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 11

50%

TD %

27.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:26

Ctrl Time

3:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Pineda	5 / 7	11 / 13	1 / 6	1
1	Alex Caceres	15 / 30	29 / 46	0 / 1	0
2	Daniel Pineda	9 / 14	19 / 26	2 / 3	0
2	Alex Caceres	5 / 9	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
3	Daniel Pineda	13 / 35	13 / 35	0 / 2	0
3	Alex Caceres	40 / 60	50 / 70	1 / 1	0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13