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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1351

Alex CaceresvsCole EscovedoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · Saturday, November 12, 2011Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cole Escovedo wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cole Escovedo at -270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Caceres has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Caceres has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Cole Escovedo

Blue Corner

+248

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1500

Elo

1351

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Cole EscovedoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Renan Barao · May 11

KOvs Takeya Mizugaki · Sep 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricCole Escovedo

4.21

Strikes / min

1.77

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

4.32

62%

Strike defense

49%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.43

64%

Takedown defense

13%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 3.67 — meaningful gap-2.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresCole Escovedo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Cole Escovedo(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +148.6|Blue -148.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +41.0|Blue -41.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetCole Escovedo

By target zone

47% acc · 58%

Head

24% acc · 33%

91% acc · 30%

Body

73% acc · 46%

86% acc · 12%

Leg

50% acc · 21%

By position

57% acc · 91%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

86% acc · 6%

Clinch

0% acc

75% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Cole Escovedo rounds

Round 1Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:07

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:36

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:08

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

102 / 174

Sig Strikes

24 / 58

58.3%

Sig Str %

45%

110 / 182

Total Strikes

28 / 63

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

1:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cole Escovedo	4 / 23	5 / 24	0 / 1	0
1	Alex Caceres	33 / 60	34 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	Cole Escovedo	12 / 23	14 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Alex Caceres	47 / 77	51 / 81	0 / 0	0
3	Cole Escovedo	8 / 12	9 / 13	2 / 3	0
3	Alex Caceres	22 / 37	25 / 40	0 / 0	1

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Cole Escovedo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3